Last Flight Alert: CX's Final Jumbo Flight to YVR

 ** Updated on 15 October 2012 - Last flight is changed to 27 October 2012 **

Almost forgot about AirlineRoute's posting regarding CX's alteration to full 773ERs for HKG-YVR starting this Fall!  CX has officially annouced the final 744 flight for the HKG-YVR route.  Please mark your calendar for this upsetting, yet honourable event: 

=== 27 October 2012 === 

CX 838   HKG-YVR   Dep. 1635hr - Arr. 1320hr   744A (No Premium Econ)*
CX 837   YVR-HKG   Dep. 1500hr - Arr. 1900hr   744A (No Premium Econ)*   
 

Booking screenshot from cathaypacific.com

* Aircraft fleet/configuration may alter upon operational needs
** Note: The CX 888/889 HKG-YVR-JFK route remains in operation with the 773ERs 
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The 744s retirement plan for CX extends until 2017.  Two were annouced to have phased out last month in September, while one more is expected to receive a great "salute" this month.  Doing some "math" here, the 21 fleet of 744s will be down to 19 by end of 2012, 15 by end of 2013, 13 by end of 2014, 7 by end of 2015 and 2016, and a complete phase out by end of 2017.  The current 773ERs plus the newly ordered A350s will replace the used-to-be the greatest Jumbo in aviation history.  There are currently 48 firm orders of the A350s, 26 of the -900 series and 22 of the -1000 series, while configurations have yet to be annouced.  

What about the 748i and A380?  Looking briefly at the inventory, CX's upcoming A350s are expected to also replace the soon-to-retire A340s and B772s, which totals to 28.  With the 48 A350 orders, the remainings should make it out to balance the 21 soon-to-retire 744s, plus a few extras.  Of course, this is no straight accounting; the seating configuration and future route plan will make a difference.  As a general conclusion, and yes, I mean very brief and general, the chance of the 748i and A380 is not as high as expected.  In fact, when the A350 orders were initially annouced, my hope for the CX A380 and B748i had smudged up like rain dropping on a Mona Lisa.  

Yes, how can you compare the A350s to the A380s and 748is?  Well, true, all of them target different passenger capacity, and of course the range as well, but ordering 48 A350s and specifically replacing the 744s and the others is absolutely in no favour of greater capacity aircraft.  The current 3-class 773ERs, installed with 340 seats (at least for 838/837's 3-class configuration), in replacement of the 379 seater 744s, shows an intension to decrease capacity per flight.  The estimated capacity for the A350s ranges from 314 to 350 in a 3-class configuration (of course, this varies depending on the air carrier's cabin setup).  It is not surprising that CX will put aside the larger capacity aircraft for the time being.               

Meanwhile, looking on the bright side, there is a potential to see the newest Airbus generation, A350XWB (Extra Wide Body), at YVR (and of course, wearing one of my favourite liveries representing Hong Kong, ever!).  All ya YVR Plane Spotters out there, grab the best "runway" seats on 27 October 2012!  This is one less 744 Jumbo at YVR I'm talking about!